Bowl Picks - Ralph Virus

(I just received this email from Virus who can't make these picks himself because he's travelling at the moment and his computer won't connect with blogger so I'm going to post it exactly as I gets it.)

Hey, I can't connect to blogger so I can't post my picks and I'm about to head to the airport. I'm sending them to you so you can either post them or at least know that I made them before the games started. I think it has something to do with blogger being switched over to google. I moved my account, but I can't move the blog because you're the founder of it. Can you switch it over?

Anyway, you were +10 on the New Orleans bowl (+30 on the over, -20 on Rice to cover) if you want to chalk yourself.

Papajohns.com bowl
I want 50 on South Florida to cover
40 on the OVER
Comments: South Florida had a winning record in a very tough conference this year and mostly flew under the radar. Even in their losses, they were still competitve. Stack that up against an overmatched ECU team that did not exactly excel in a weak CUSA, and is also coached by Lou Holtz's son, Skip, and I think South Florida runs away with this one.

New Mexico Bowl
50 on San Jose State money line (+145)
Comments: New Mexico gets this game at home, but I'm not sold. This team lost to Portland State (not a D-1A school) and only has 2 victories on the year of 10 points or more (they were also the only 2 games of the season where New Mexico would have covered this spread, since all 4 of their other wins were by 3 points or less). They're very unimpressive on both sides of the ball. San Jose State played Boise State very close and were only really blown out by Hawaii in Honululu. I'm not sure what New Mexico is playing for here, but San Jose State doesn't want to end this remarkable turaround season (they were 2-9 last year) on a sour note, so I think they come out and pull off the upset.

Armed Forces Bowl
No money line posted for this game, I don't think it matters.
50 on Tulsa to cover
30 on the UNDER
Comments: Utah is riding a hot bowl streak coming into this game, but stats like that are meaningless in college football. Utah lost a heartbreaker to BYU recently while Tulsa was blown out earlier, but BYU vs Utah is a rivalry game, so comparing performance across teams there can be misleading. Overall, I like Tulsa's QB play a little more than Utah's, and I think their offense is a little more consistent and even. Utah's defense can be stingy, and Tulsa has lost 3 of their last 4 (after starting 7-1) but I can't go for another Mormon school in the bowl season, especially one that used to employ Urban Meyer. I like Tulsa for the upset here.

Hawaii Bowl
In case I can't get to a computer before Sunday night, I'll make this pick now.
70 on Hawaii to cover
Comments: Hawaii just lost a game to another Pac-10 opponent in Oregon State, but Arizona State isn't playing nearly as well as the Beavers right now. On top of that, Az St. just fired their head coach, and they have to make the trip to Hawaii on Christmas Eve to play this game. The Hawaii offense is just sickeningly effective and Colt Brennan puts up video game numbers in June Jones's offense. If the over/under were just a bit lower I'd be tempted to put a full 100 on the over, but I'm too ambivalent about the number as it is. I don't see how Arizona State has the firepower to keep up in this game, especially since everybody knows that Pac-10 teams don't play defense anyway. This game may be entertaining for a little while, but I think Hawaii runs away with it late.

New Orleans Bowl Wrap ups and other Random predictions - Football Jeezy

You know, next time I'm in the mood to watch an interesting match-up around this time of year I'm just going to go to Wal-Mart and throw a Playstation 3 into a crowd of soccer moms. Man, even 5 bourbon and cokes couldn't make this game half as hypnotic as the bowl of pretzels in front of me and (after 4 drinks mind you) the sparsely toothed, wrangler-clad vixen next to me. I think she was a woman. Regardless, it wanted me. Point being, this is getting to be ridiculous. If this is the type of bowl season we have to look forward to will someone PLEASE send me some Tivo-ed High School Football championship games or something. Jesus, I'd rather watch two kids with down syndrome play Madden 2002 then these low-grade blowouts. Anyway, this is how the credits landed.

Over - 30 won
Rice Cover - 20 lost

Papa Johns.com Bowl - South Florida vs. East Carolina...shudder.
ummmm fuck it,
30 on S. Florida to cover
30 on the over

New Mexico Bowl - pitting, you guessed it, the New Mexico Lobos against the Spartans of San Jose State. God I'm going to have to start drinking in the middle of the day again I guess...sigh...

You know San Jose actually has a decent run attack and their four losses were to some pretty decent programs...I mean decent considering it's San Diego State of course. I don't think they're as much of a pushover as everyone thinks so I'm gonne throw my first bone to the underdog here...60 credits to the San Jose State Money Line

Bell Hellicopters Armed Forces Bowl...Tulsa vs. Utah. I have been stuck in my parents house in what Carl Sagan might refer to as an Anti-Time Vortex, which in layman's terms means, an area where there has been no sort of major social progression since around 1942. I am so desperate to add any sort of excitement to my day that I'm going to just get nutty, and throw my lot with the underdog yet again. I can't blame it completely on the ultra-conservative ewok village that is Lincolnton, I honestly think that Tulsa is a better team than Utah with the exception of one thing, turnovers. If Tulsa can keep their hands on the ball I think they have a great shot at pulling the upset in this match-up. The 6th ranked Pass Defense in the country? the 32nd run and 30th pass offense in the NCAA? the 16th best total defense in the country? Tulsa?! Believe it, slugger.

50 on the Tulsa upset
50 on the Over

And since I have quite a while until the Hawaii bowl we'll so how far into the toilet I get myself with the above picks before I decide on whether to blow more credits on yet another...you get the point...Back in a bit

New Orleans Bowl picks - Football Jeezy

Hot damn, after two of the worst match-ups of this century, how do the football gods repay us? With the Trojans of Troy battling the Owls of Rice, that's how. And people say God doesn't have a sense of humor. Well a part of me wants to let this one slide because...well honestly who in their right mind gives a sweet shit. I mean the only people watching this one are going to be people trying to shut out the incessant chatter of holiday relatives for three hours which is...well probably everyone at this point but it doesn't mean anyone cares. And as a sidenote, if Bono and Green Day show up at this event I'm going to murder an entire flock of baby sheep with a Louisville slugger, 2001 A Space Oddysey-ape style. The point here is that I can't let this one slide because honestly, I have a gambling problem. There I admitted it. I forgot what step 2 was but I should get my damn coin now Bill Wilson. Plus, I'm ahead at the moment and it just aint REAL gamblin' if you're ahead so HERE WE GO.

30 on the over

20 on the Rice cover

who cares...

LAS VEGAS BOWL WRAP UP

The Jeezy gets himself onto the positive side of the ledger with his 2-2 performance last night and the Virus just keeps on winning. Why couldn't I do this when I had real money on the line?

A few notes on the game:

1) Oregon needs to give up on this uniform trend. When I saw last night's uniforms, I swear I vomited a meal I ate when I was 7 years old, that's how distressingly ugly they were. I mean, they were hi-liter green WITH FLAMES ON THE HELMET. They looked like a color-blind redneck's hot-rodded truck.

2) The booth announcers have just gone too far. Craig James looked like a homosexual grape and I was 30 seconds away from shoving a wine bottle up my ass with an M-80 in it after watching Bob Davie present Brent Musberger with his "action figure" from Rocky II. How the hell can you even have an ACTION figure for an announcer?

3) This was going to go in the previous section, but it deserved it's own number. Ryan Fucking Leaf, ladies and gentlemen. This guy is biggest bust in the history of the NFL draft, is a total headcase, is a talentless hack, did not attend either school in the contest, AND IS DOWN ON THE SIDELINES IN A BLACK COWBOY HAT, A BELT BUCKLE BIGGER THAN MY FACE AND SOME NU-ALTERNATIVE WILLIE NELSON SHIRT. Despite all this, ESPN invites him into the booth I suppose to gain some of his massive insight into what it's like to be the biggest laughingstock in the history of the NFL. I was shocked when I found out someone related to Ryan Leaf was actually recruited by a major program. I guess pedigree doesn't exactly mean what it used to.

4) Oregon is really bad and BYU was really good. The Mt. West has put on a clinic the last two days, and it really shouldn't be a surprise. There's almost always 1-2 teams from that conference that sneak into the Top 25 by the end of the year. Before the Big East swallowed up all its talent, Conference USA was poised to be the conference on the rise. I'm throwing my support to the Mt. West. The top 3 teams in the Mt. West would probably finish in the top 5 or 6 in the Pac-10. I'm serious.

PAYOUTS

Jeezy
20 on BYU to cover - WIN
30 on the under - WIN
+50 on the game for a new total of 1,032

Virus
50 on BYU to cover - WIN
+50 on the game for a new total of 1,220

BOWLS AND LINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND

I'm going to go ahead and post the lines for each game through Christmas. Picks aren't due all in bunches, but if you're betting on a game, obviously the post should be registered before the time of kickoff.

Money Lines aren't out yet. I'll update as they become available (watch this post).

NEW ORLEANS BOWL http://www.neworleansbowl.com

Man, this bowl has a crappy logo, a crappy website, and a crappy match-up. Yeesh.







Rice (-4.5) vs Troy

Over/Under
52.5

EDIT (12/22 10:00 am)
Money Line
Troy +170
Rice -200

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL http://www.papajohnsbowl.com








South Florida (-4.5) vs East Carolina

Over/Under
43.5

EDIT:
Money Line
East Carolina +170
South Florida -200

NEW MEXICO BOWL http://www.newmexicobowl.com/












New Mexico (-3.5) vs San Jose State

Over/Under
49

EDIT:
Money Line
San Jose State +145
New Mexico -165
BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL http://www.armedforcesbowl.com/














Tulsa vs Utah (-1.5)

Over/Under
50


SHERATON HAWAII BOWL http://www.sheratonhawaiibowl.com








Arizona St. vs Hawaii (-7)

Over/Under
74

LAS VEGAS BOWL

Wow. I'm not going to even try to top Jeezy's post.

50 on BYU to cover. That's it and that's all.

Football Jesus - Las Vegas Bowl Picks

Good sweet lord, to tell you the truth I ended up drinking an entire handle of Southern Comfort with a couple of guys I've never met before and managed to catch the repeat of the game at 4 in the morning, so a part of me really wanted to believe that the "game" was merely an alcohol induced hallucination, much like the 20 breasted unicorn that pranced happily around the television for the entire 3 hour ordeal. That match-up was like watching Takeru Kobayashi and Karen Carpenter in a bacon eating contest. So anyway, as you can imagine I'm nursing one of the most disgusting hang-overs in the recent history of mankind and there's a distinct possibility that I might die at any point in this blog-entry, so with that being said, I'm going to try to get this over with as soon as possible so that I can drill a hole in my brain to release these evil bourbon demons.

BYU-Oregon...You know what, for the last three weeks i've been doing all this ridiculous research and figuring out stats and predictions and trying to make educated decisions and so far it hasn't helped me in the LEAST, so I'm just going to wing this one since I'd rather google pictures of Tom Arnold's balls then figure out the intricacies of the Mormon offense. Here's what I do know...

1. Oregon is on a big losing streak right now and has a quarterback who's interview skills remind me of those retarted kids that try to sell magazines door to door.

2. BYU plays in a pitiful conference where they can boast of playing such phenomenal powerhouses as Wyoming, Air Force, and Carl's Massagetherapy Institute and Tire Center.

3. Mormons are just fucking bat shit crazy. Period. If i have to see another one of those brainfuck Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints commercials I swear to Tony Danza i'm going to shave my balls with a butter knife, dig up Joseph Smith Jr.'s corpse and give him a gorilla mask for the ages. That goes for that door to door black tie wearing mormon child army as well. I swear to all non-mormon deities that I will find every one of you and hit you with my open car door at speed. Then I'll steal your bikes and donate them to scientologists who will need them on their ET-esque voyage to the mothership. Don't fuck with me right now. I hurt.

So anyway...here's the dealio

I'm putting 20 on the BYU cover

I'm putting 30 on the under

and i'm not even gonna fuck with the money line because I just honestly don't know enough about these teams. So there. Maybe if we're lucky this game will distract those maniacal religious nutjobs long enough to not have a small forest's worth of brochures and pamplets shoved in my face when I'm trying to jerk off to scrambled porn. Is that too much to ask?! Die.

POINSETTIA BOWL PAYOUTS AND LAS VEGAS BOWL LINES

Watching this game got kind of creepy after awhile. Garrett Wolfe got stuffed, like I thought, and TCU was all over the NIU QB all night long, like I thought, and the NIU offense got a whole lot of nothing all night long. If it weren't for TCU's special teams fuck-ups, NIU would have easily been shut out and wouldn't have even gotten some of the chances they got. I actually don't know what was more painful: Rocket Ismail gushing about the Holiday bowl and the matchup he imagined between California and Texas while the Texas A&M logo was prominently featured on the screen (I honestly thought at first he was just saying Texas as a short hand until he started talking about the Texas QB who just announced his transfer to Ole Miss which cemented the fact that, yes, he's being paid tons of money to have no fucking clue what's going on) or watching Garrett Wolfe's draft stock plummet right in front of my eyes.

Speaking of announcers having no fucking clue, how hard would it be for ESPN to hire somebody who knew something about football in general? The festivities started early with Lou Holtz complaining about a "clipping" call on the first kickoff of the game. First thing, the block was clearly on the player's side and not in the back. Second thing, "block in the back" and "clipping" are not synonymous. Even if the block was square in the back, it still wasn't clipping. Lou Holtz has coached for 900 years and is being paid to know something about college football and not only can't recognize a legal block, but doesn't even know the proper term for the penalty he wanted called.

The whole night was painful to listen to, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point out exhibit 8,593,908 for Mark May's colossal stupidity. He was actually complaining that the referees were conferencing to make sure they got the play right. Why? Because he didn't like that they were disrupting the flow of the game. Mind you, Mark May has been one of the biggest smug bastards about how uniformly great instant replay is because it allows the refs to get the call right, even though instant replay has done more to disrupt the "flow" of a regular football game than any other introduction in the history of the game. It disrupts the "flow" so much that there are fewer plays being run on average in a given game because of clock changes that were necessary to institute replay. But God Help Us All if the refs conference for 30 seconds to make sure everybody saw the same thing.

I'm awfully bitter for someone who hit both of his bets, but the state of announcing, commentary and studio analysis has reached an absurd point. Lou Holtz is too damn stupid and old to ever have anything insightful to say, Mark May is dead wrong about almost everything he says and probably offers hand jobs to each offensive lineman before every game (he was an offensive lineman, remember? HOW THE FUCK COULD WE EVER FORGET), Rocket Ismail can barely read, is always biased, and is only halfway informed about the shit he pontificates about (I'd be careful about stepping into College Station anytime soon after the gaffe last night), Todd Blackledge couldn't be any farther up Urban Meyers ass if his name was Tim Tebow or Chris Leak, Doug Flutie is the least funny human being on the planet (he's not even funny for a Canadian, which is saying somethign) and if I get started on the 950 ways I hate Craig James, we'll be here until Vanderbilt wins a national title. Craig James is just a slightly less stupid version of Terry Bowden, and I'll leave the rest to your imagination.

PAYOUTS:

Virus -
70 on TCU to cover - WIN
100 on the under - WIN
+170 on the game for a new total of 1,170

Jeezy
30 on TCU to cover - WIN
80 on the over - LOSE
80 on TCU money line - WIN (+32)
-18 on the game for a new total of 982

NEXT GAME - LAS VEGAS BOWL









BYU (-3) vs Oregon

Over/Under
61

Money Lines
BYU -155
Oregon +135


Image courtesy of http://www.lvbowl.com

POINSETTIA BOWL PREDICTIONS

QUICK NOTE ABOUT THE SYSTEM: Since we're not a casino, there's no juice. For the gambling impaired, at a casino or sports book (or anywhere where they want to rape you) if you wanted to win $100 on a spread bet or an over/under bet, you have to lay $110 to win $100. That just complicates shit when you're doing it for fun, so all bets on over/unders and spreads are to win like amount (bet $100 to win $100) and the money lines are proportional (e.g. this week Jeezy laid $80 on the -250 ML which means if TCU wins outright, he gets his $80 back plus $32. If he laid $80 on NIU, he would get $80 plus $152. Money lines pay big when the big underdog wins). If you have any other questions go grow a pair and then come back. It should make sense with a functional pair of testicles.

I'm also toying with the idea of throwing away the limits on the BCS games or just the Championship game so we can go out with a bang. We'll see.


ANALYSIS: At the beginning of the season, everybody thought TCU was going to be the BCS buster this year. It didn't quite pan out for them as BYU slapped them down early on their way to a 10-2 season and a Mt. West championship and then Utah caught them right afterwards when they still didn't have their heads straight from having their perfect season ruined. It's not really that TCU wasn't quite as good as everybody thought (though they didn't really get a chance to prove it), it's more that BYU was better than everybody thought.

Garrett Wolfe became a Heisman candidate and was eliminated as a candidate the same week: at Western Michigan he got 25 yards on 18 carries and wouldn't break the century mark for 5 more weeks. Looking at this dude's stats makes me wonder if he has an identical twin who sucks at running back who played for him during a 5 game stretch. This dude got 171 yards AT Ohio State (along with 114 receiving yards!), averaging over 6 yards a carry (22.8 per reception) and has averaged over 10 yards a carry in two games (as well as averaging 9.0 and 8.2 in two other games). He has a rang of 25 - 66 on the low end and 162 - 353 on the high end, but nothing between 66 or 162. 3 of their 5 losses were during his slump with the other two coming to Ohio State and Ohio, the eventual MAC runner-up. On the plus side, his last two games have been a return to form with efforts of 203 against MAC champ Central Michigan and 164 against MAC doormat Eastern Michigan.

So the matchup looks like this: you've got a guy who either can go crazy at any time and rush for 353 yards or a guy who runs like a fat girl after a bran muffin on one side of the ball and a defense rated #3 against the run by CNNSI.com that averages 67.6 ypg given up. NIU recently lost their starting QB and is atrocious on defense. The TCU offense isn't spectacular, but it doesn't have to be.

PREDICTION: Garrett Wolfe is all or nothing and TCU gives him nothing early and is all over the QB for the rest of the game as NIU struggles to get anything going on offense. TCU's offense has little trouble against NIU defense, but since they aren't that spectacular themselves, it isn't a full on blowout. A 17 point margin feels about right.

WAGERS:
75 on TCU to cover (EDIT: I'm retarded and broke my own rule about 10 unit increments. It's halftime, so the punishment is: if I win the bet, I round down to 70 units. If I lose, I round up to 80 units.)
100 on the UNDER
0 on the money line

Holy Sisterhood of the Travelling pants...I'm not going to lie to you, I'm not too familiar with this betting system but I wasn't that familiar with craps when I lost 50 bucks in 5 minutes either...weep...anyway...It's bowl season. Time to revisit all those teams you didn't get a chance to watch because your girlfriend wouldn't shut the fuck up about not spending enough time with her and so you spent your Thursdays (or as they call them on ESPN, "desperation-football nights") at Olive Garden wondering if coughin' up 7 bucks on a glass of cheap wine will get you a handjob or not. That or you were too busy watching re-runs of Everybody Loves Raymond and wondering whether you'd look cool with one of those ridiculous Mr. T mohawks everyone in the NFL is rockin right now.

ANYWHO, if you've followed either of these teams you either have an amazing knack for stealing cable packages or you actually attend these places of study because I know JACK SHIT about Northern Illinois and even less about the horned frogs of Texas Christian. Besides they're goofy team-name of course. Soooooo after doing a little researchhhhhh this looks kinda like a no brainer...observe


Total Offense
TCU - 17th 404.50 ypg NIU - 24th 388,5 ypg
Total Defense
TCU - 4th 249.50 ypg NIU - 80th 357.08 ypg
Scoring Offense
TCU - 33rd 28.58 ppg NIU - 42nd 27 ppg
Scoring Defense
TCU - 5th 12.75 ppg NIU - 42nd 19.83 ppg
Run Offense
TCU - 9th 194.33 ypg NIU - 17th 180.17 ypg
Run Defense
TCU - 4th 67.58 ypg NIU - 34th 115.58 ypg
Pass Offense
TCU - 49th 210.17 ypg NIU - 50th 208.33 ypg
Pass Defense
TCU - 34th 189.92 ypg NIU - 104th 241.50 ypg
Turnover Margin
TCU - 27th 0.50 NIU - 43rd 0.25

In the immortal words of Mark Foley..."You ever heard of a cleveland bowtie, son?"

ahem...yeah...POINT BEING...it's true that this record was built on playing sub-par teams and that most of NIU's losses came at the hands of teams like Ohio State, Ohio (who played for the MAC championship) and Iowa, AND NIU'S Garrett Wolfe's starting to roll again after slumping mid-season but I'm just not buying the upset here. NIU has only one hope and that's that Wolfe manages to have a career game against the 4th ranked Run Defense in the country because otherwise they're putting the load on a second string quaterback who's still working out the kinks to lead them to victory. I think it'll stay pretty close until about the late 3rd quarter when TCU will finally break out and cover the spread.

I'm only putting 30 on TCU to cover because that's a hell of a spread and these no-name teams always seem to end up having the most memorable down to the wire endings, but I think that if the Horned Frogs can get off to a good start early that NIU can't hope to keep up points wise if they're relying on a ground attack.

thennnn I'm putting 80 on the Over - because regardless of the spread these little schools always tend to be like watching an And-1 mixtape...all offense.

THENNNNNN...well actually i'm not really sure how the money line works or if i'm supposed to be making an extra wager on that particular line buttttt i'm putting 80 on the Horned Frogs to pull the victory in this one right hyuh.

LET'S DANCE HOMIE.

IT'S BOWL SEASON BITCHES!!

My favorite month of the year is Decembruary, that magical time between mid-December and mid-January when all of those once-classic, majestic sounding bowl games come out with their new, insane, tongue-tying corporate sponsorship names. This year, we do not even have a single bowl game immune to the intrusion of corporate sponsorship. A few of my favorite:

Meineke Car Care
Gaylord Hotels Music City
Oops! I Crapped Myself Adult Diapers
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Papajohns.com Bowl
Columbia Pictures Presents We Are Marshall
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
MPC Computers

A few of those are fake. I defy you to tell me what they are without looking them up.

In any case, for better or for worse, bowl season is essentially here and our goal at Football Jesus is to have something on the line for every game from the Tostitos BCS Championship Game (not to be confused with Tostito's other corporate tie-in, the Fiesta Bowl) to the Brut Sun Bowl.

Format's changed, so listen up. Every blogger has 1,000 units to start with. Each game will have three elements to bet on independently, the spread, the money line, and the over/under. There is a minimum of 10 units per bet, maximum 100, increments of 10. Not every game needs to be bet on and not every aspect needs to be bet on. However, if you do not risk at least 1,000 units in the course of the game, you are disqualified (this means you can't squat on your money and wait for the other guy to crap out).

FIRST GAME:


















SPREAD
TCU (-12)

MONEY LINE
TCU -250
NIU +190

O/U
47

Images from http://www.poinsettiabowl.net