DECEMBER 30-31 GAMES, LINES, VIRUS PICKS

Sweet motherfucking Christ. Boys and girls, this is why gambling is bad for your health. I'm fucking bulletproof for over a week, can't fucking miss, only have a net loss on one game, and then comes Thursday. Even the games I was THINKING about betting on I would have gotten wrong. It takes about the same amount of talent to get them all wrong as to get them all right, so conventional wisdom goes, but there's a world of difference in the pain involved. Those games gave me the lube-free treatment without the courtesy of a reacharound or even a little spit. I laid off yesterday because I was travelling, but the games I was thinking about laying went the wrong way. I was ready to bet the house on Clemson, but the boys in blue pulled it out. I thought Purdue would take out Maryland, but they got embarrassed. Missouri put up a lot more of a fight than I thought they could muster against a red-hot Oregon State team, and I gave up on Texas Tech and went to bed. When you're hot, you see those things clearly and you know what games to give up on. I texted the Jeezy with about 6 minutes left in the FSU game because I KNEW it was over and in the bag. If this were real money, I'd take my winnings and go home. My luck is spent and it's only going down from here. The sound a game winning field goal makes against a team that's a 2.5 point underdog is the same sound money makes when it's being set on fire. Fuck you Oklahoma State.

So here's the games, lines, and picks from me for the next two days. You're probably better off betting on every team I didn't pick.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
Saturday, December 30, 1 PM
Navy vs Boston College (-7.5)
Over/Under 48
Money Lines:
Boston College -300
Navy +250

I'm never big on Boston College, and no matter what side I put the money on, it goes the other way. I really want to take Navy in this one, and that money line is very appetizing, but I can't do it. Navy's offense is really good, but it's a gimmick offense, and I don't trust those against talented defenses. BC has an interim coach for this game, but that really hasn't seemed to matter much so far in the bowl season. BC also has won 6 straight bowl games, which, of course, means nothing in the high-turnover world of college football. All of those are gimmick stats people throw out which are ultimately meaningless for picks. The more important stuff:

Navy is #1 in rushing offense, but only 119th in passing.
BC is 26th in passing offense, but only 86th rushing.
Both teams are in the top 50 in ypg and points scored with Navy getting the edge in each category. Navy lost to Tulsa, Rutgers and Notre Dame and the only D1 team they beat with a winning record was Air Force. BC lost to NC State, ACC champ Wake Forest and Miami, but beat a host of talented teams in MAC champ Central Michigan, BYU, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Maryland, all teams who are in bowl games. BC is able to stop the triple option enough and will throw all over the Navy defense today. The simulations have this game right at the over/under number (29-19 BC win), and BC has cracked this number about half the times they play. Not enough for me to throw money down.

50 on BC to cover

ALAMO BOWL
Saturday, December 30, 4:30 PM
Iowa vs Texas (-9.5)
Over/under 54
Money Lines:
Iowa +300
Texas -400

I had to look twice at this matchup. This is probably the most lopsided matchup of the whole bowl season. Texas was a Colt McCoy injury away from competing for a national title, while Iowa was perhaps the most disappointing team in the country this year. Needing a huge goal-line stand against Syracuse has been the highpoint of their season, which should say all that needs to be said about their year. But let's be fair about Texas: they got wiped out against Ohio State, struggled past Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Nebraska, gave up 45 points to Kansas State in a loss, and looked positively awful against Texas A&M. They've lost their last 2 in completely poor fashion and went from a national title contender to not even playing on New Year's Day. Their opponent, however, is a lowly 6-6, and averages a full 13 points less per game. Iowa has lost to the likes of Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota, didn't put up a fight against Ohio State or Michigan, and played a vastly overrated Wisconsin team close. Point being, while Texas has struggled, Iowa has been downright awful and is way out of their league here.

100 on Texas to cover
4o on the OVER

PEACH BOWL
I refuse to call this bowl by any other name. Fuck you Chick-fil-A.
Saturday, December 30, 8 pm
Georgia vs Virginia Tech (-3)
Over/Under 38
No money line.

This game has the best defensive matchup of any bowl game this season. Both teams have top-10 defenses, and both have terrible offenses (Virginia Tech is 95th in ypg and 49th in ppg while UGA is 87th and 57th respectively). Virginia tech has only allowed 29 points in their last 6 games COMBINED (all victories), with two shutouts and two wins over Clemson and Wake Forest in that span. They played two awful games back-to-back against Georgia Tech and BC early in the year. Georgia's travails have been well-documented here. I make it a point never to bet on Georgia games, but that over/under is too tempting. Remember what happened in the last "defensive struggle" between FSU and UCLA? Me too.

50 on the OVER

MPC COMPUTERS BOWL
Sunday, December 31, 7:30 PM
Nevada vs Miami (-4)
Over/under 42

It's Larry Coker's last hurrah at Miami, and who really gives a fuck. The big question here is just whether Miami can pull a Florida State and get enough of their swagger back to run away with this game, or if they play like the bunch of pouty fucking losers they are. It would definitely be in Miami's best interest to just give Randy Shannon the reins here and try to light a fire under this club because nobody wants to play for Larry Coker anymore. Miami has more talent by a landslide in this contest, but they've lost 4 out of their last 5, though 3 were to ranked teams. Nevada has everything to play for here, and I think they can muster enough offense to at least cover this, if not win outright.

50 on Nevada to cover
The jury's out on the over/under. I may make a bet on this tomorrow.